Going In On Gubernatorial Races
Statistician Nate Silver says that these races might be the purest indicator of whether a “blue wave” is afoot because, in statewide elections, there isn’t an electoral college or gerrymandering that might influence the way the vote is decided.
These are some races he highlighted:
Democrats Andrew Gillum of Florida and Stacey Abrams of Georgia are striving to become the first African-American governors of their respective states and the first elected anywhere in the South since Douglas Wilder of Virginia in 1989. Gillum has had a small but fairly consistent lead in the polls, and our model gives him a 70 percent chance (about 7 in 10) of winning. Abrams is in a toss-up race that tilts ever-so-slightly toward her Republican opponent, Brian Kemp.
In Wisconsin, incumbent Republican Scott Walker trails Democrat Tony Evers by 5 points in our polling average, but the fundamentals think he “should” narrowly win re-election. The Classic version of our model evaluates this race as leaning Democratic, but with Walker having a better chance than polls alone would suggest. And in Kansas, where the controversial Republican secretary of state, Kris Kobach, is running, polls show a true dead heat against Democrat Laura Kelly, but the model classifies the race as leaning Republican on the basis of the fundamentals.
We’ll talk about those contests and about races in Connecticut, Ohio and more. What issues are impacting voters on the state level? What about states where the ticket is split — in which there are federal legislators from one party with a governor that’s of a different party (like in Massachusetts)?
Produced by Morgan Givens. Text by Gabrielle Healy.
Daniel Strauss, Politics reporter, Politico; @DanielStrauss4
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