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Government and Politics

Obama ahead of Romney in the polls

Two new polls show race in Ohio is tight but President Obama has a slight edge
This story is part of a special series.

Jo Ingles
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In The Region:

Two new polls on the presidential race in Ohio show what pollsters have been saying all along in recent days, the race is tight and Election Day turnout will matter. Statehouse correspondent Jo Ingles reports on what the campaigns are saying about the new polls and the state of the race in Ohio.

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Two new polls show President Obama with a lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Ohio.  The CBS/Quinnipiac/New York Times poll shows Obama with a five point lead while a new Ohio Poll by the University of Cincinnati shows Obama up by two.  David Axelrod with the Obama campaign says both polls prove Romney won’t win.

Axelrod – This professed momentum of the Romney campaign is really foementum.  We are in a very strong position to win this election and we are going to win this election on Tuesday.

President Obama’s campaign manager, Jim Messina, says Romney’s campaign is propped up with inaccurate information.

Messina – We have the math and they have the myth.  Whether we are talking about getting out the vote or bringing down the deficit, our numbers add up.  The Romney campaign is trying to sell illusion and delusion.

Messina tells reporters it’s all coming down to ground game.  And he says that’s something that gives President Obama a big advantage.
Messina – You don’t have to take my word for it.  A Republican in Florida had this to say yesterday in a memo: “The Democratic turnout machine is cleaning our clock.” And the numbers back him up.  First we have a significant early vote advantage in battleground from North Carolina to Nevada.  Secondly, there’s no Romney momentum in battleground states.  There’s only smoke and mirrors.  Which brings me to the third truth of this final week…..Romney campaign has found itself trapped in a narrow and improbable path to 270 electoral votes and its desperation is palpable.

And then, Messina says, there’s the early voting factor.  He says the President leads in early voting in battleground states, including Ohio. 
Messina – In Ohio, there have been 9 public polls of people who’ve already voted and President Obama leads by double digits in every single one of them.  I mean look, you guys, that just makes their math really, really difficult for them on Election Day.

Not surprisingly, the Romney campaign has a different take on the polls, ground game and early voting.  Pollster Rich Beason says Democrats are wrong when they talk about the early vote in Ohio going for President Obama.

Beason = When you look at counties McCain won in 2008 that would be a good county for Republicans, we are 11 percent higher than we were in 2008.  There are 35 counties that JM won in 2008 where turnout is already over 100 percent of 2008.  There are only 10 counties that President Obama won where this is the case.  Turnout in Franklin County is only about 81 percent of what it was in 2008 and that was a county that president Obama carried.

Romney campaign’s Neil Newhouse says there’s another factor that is important – independent voters.

Newhouse – So Mitt is leading among independents in Ohio.  Why is that important?  Because in the last five races in Ohio, the candidate that won independents won the state.

The Republican campaign supporters say Romney is also helped because he is the candidate with the message of change….running in Ohio at a time when many Ohioans tell pollsters they are not happy with the state’s economy.

Listener Comments:

Yes, another 4 years of Obama, and constant insults to the Republic/a country run by the people will remake America into a socialist country run by the government, and the working class will be lucky to have enough money left from their check to buy their own electric car/lawnmower.

Posted by: Presidential Edicts on November 4, 2012 1:11AM
I sure hope people are smart. We cannot have another four years with current president. Come on America and wake up! Do what is right and help get some of our rights back!

Posted by: Lee (oklahoma) on November 2, 2012 10:11AM
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