WKSU News: Quinnipiac poll shows Ohio voters are back where they were in August

Monday, October 22, 2012 Quinnipiac poll shows Ohio voters are back where they were in August Early voting women are the source of many Obama votes by WKSU's M.L. SCHULTZE This story is part of a special series.	Web Editor M.L. Schultze

Tens of millions of dollars worth of presidential campaign ads later -- Ohio voters are back where they were in August. WKSU’s M.L. Schultze reports that they’re leaning toward President Obama but not overwhelmingly so, and that both campaigns have it right when they say they need women.

SCHULTZE how the Quinnipiac number break

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The Quinnipiac Poll is different from some others in that it’s been studying the swing state of Ohio for years, not months, days, even instants.

And it’s newest poll shows 50 percent of the likely voters in Ohio plan to vote for President Obama over the next two weeks, while 45 percent plan to vote for Gov. Mitt Romney.

Mr. Obama’s edge is down from 10 points a month ago, but about where they were in the first and again in the third week of August.

The president owes his edge voters with incomes up to $50,000 a year, those younger than 55, and perhaps most of all to women. The poll shows 55 percent of women are going to Mr. Obama, 40 percent for Mr. Romney.

And the margin is even more dramatic among those who already have cast their ballots. Nearly 6 of every 10 women who already have voted went for the president.

The poll was released Monday, before last night’s debate.

It also measured how Ohio’s Sen. Sherrod Brown is doing against his challenger, state Treasurer Josh Mandel. Brown’s lead is 9 percentage points.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 50% 6% 93% 42% 44% 55% 44% 91% Romney 45 93 5 49 51 40 51 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 1 - DK/NA 3 2 2 7 3 3 3 4 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Obama 43% 45% 40% 39% 39% 49% 29% 47% Romney 54 49 56 56 56 46 67 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 - 1 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 47% 52% 60% 52% 49% 45% 59% 51% 48% Romney 49 43 34 43 49 53 34 45 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 4 1 - DK/NA 3 4 5 4 2 1 4 3 4
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 22 Sep 26 Aug 23 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 2012 Obama 50 53 50 50 Romney 45 43 44 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 3 3 4 4
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS....... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1 Tot Obama Romney Mind made up 95% 95% 95% Might change 4 5 4 DK/NA - - -
TREND: (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................. CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1........... Oct 22 Sep 26 Aug 23 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 2012 Mind made up 95 92 88 87 Might change 4 7 11 12 DK/NA - 1 1 1
1b. (If already voted) In the election for president, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
LIKELY VOTERS.... ALREADY VOTED.... Tot Men Wom Obama 54% 48% 59% Romney 39 44 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 6 6 5
2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 46% 92% 8% 50% 53% 40% 52% 10% Unfavorable 48 6 87 42 42 53 43 82 Hvn't hrd enough 4 1 4 5 4 4 3 6 REFUSED 2 - 1 3 1 2 2 1 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable 56% 49% 57% 56% 57% 47% 66% 50% Unfavorable 41 45 38 37 38 48 28 45 Hvn't hrd enough 3 4 2 6 4 3 4 3 REFUSED 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 51% 43% 34% 43% 50% 55% 36% 47% 48% Unfavorable 45 49 57 49 48 41 55 48 46 Hvn't hrd enough 2 5 6 7 1 3 8 4 4 REFUSED 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 22 Sep 26 Aug 23 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 46 41 39 40 Unfavorable 48 49 45 43 Hvn't hrd enough 4 8 12 15 REFUSED 2 2 3 3
3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 51% 8% 92% 45% 46% 56% 46% 91% Unfavorable 45 89 6 50 50 40 50 7 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 2 2 2 1 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable 45% 47% 41% 42% 42% 50% 30% 48% Unfavorable 52 49 56 54 55 46 66 48 Hvn't hrd enough 1 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 49% 53% 60% 54% 50% 48% 64% 51% 49% Unfavorable 48 43 36 42 49 49 31 46 47 Hvn't hrd enough 1 2 2 3 1 1 3 2 2 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 - 2 1 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 22 Sep 26 Aug 23 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 51 54 51 51 Unfavorable 45 43 45 45 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 2 REFUSED 2 2 3 2
4. (If Obama q1) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney?
LIKELY VOTERS.... OBAMA Q1......... Tot Men Wom Strongly favor 74% 72% 76% Like/Reservations 19 21 18 Dislike Romney 6 7 5 DK/NA 1 - 1
TREND: (If Obama voter) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney?
LIKELY VOTERS......... OBAMA VOTER........... Oct 22 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Strongly favor 74 66 60 Like/Reservations 19 25 31 Dislike Romney 6 8 9 DK/NA 1 1 1
5. (If Romney voter) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama?
LIKELY VOTERS.... ROMNEY Q1........ Tot Men Wom Strongly favor 63% 59% 66% Like/Reservations 27 29 25 Dislike Obama 10 11 9 DK/NA 1 1 -
TREND: (If Romney voter) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama?
LIKELY VOTERS......... ROMNEY VOTER.......... Oct 22 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Strongly favor 63 51 42 Like/Reservations 27 30 35 Dislike Obama 10 18 22 DK/NA 1 1 1
6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Josh Mandel the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Brown or Mandel? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Brown 51% 11% 90% 45% 46% 56% 47% 82% Mandel 42 83 6 46 48 36 46 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 7 6 4 8 6 8 6 10 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Brown 47% 47% 41% 45% 43% 51% 32% 51% Mandel 48 45 51 51 52 42 60 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - 1 1 1 - DK/NA 4 7 7 3 5 7 8 5 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Brown 50% 52% 57% 53% 52% 47% 56% 50% 52% Mandel 44 40 34 38 44 48 33 43 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - - - - 1 DK/NA 5 8 9 7 4 4 10 7 5
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Josh Mandel the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Brown or Mandel? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 22 Sep 26 Aug 23 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 2012 Brown 51 50 48 51 Mandel 42 40 41 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 7 9 10 9
6a. (If Senate candidate chosen q6) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS....... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q6 Tot Brown Mandel Mind made up 89% 90% 88% Might change 10 10 12 DK/NA - - -
6b. (If already voted) In the election for United States Senator, did you vote for Sherrod Brown the Democrat or Josh Mandel the Republican?
LIKELY VOTERS.... ALREADY VOTED.... Tot Men Wom Brown 57% 51% 61% Mandel 36 40 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 DIDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 DK/NA 3 5 2
7. Is your opinion of Sherrod Brown favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 48% 10% 82% 43% 45% 50% 44% 76% Unfavorable 36 69 4 41 41 30 40 8 Hvn't hrd enough 16 20 12 14 13 18 16 14 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable 45% 43% 38% 41% 41% 46% 30% 46% Unfavorable 41 39 45 43 45 35 51 39 Hvn't hrd enough 12 18 16 15 13 18 19 15 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 48% 47% 50% 50% 49% 46% 49% 47% 48% Unfavorable 39 34 29 33 38 37 19 34 41 Hvn't hrd enough 12 18 20 15 12 15 31 18 10 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 2
8. Is your opinion of Josh Mandel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 34% 69% 5% 35% 39% 30% 38% 8% Unfavorable 42 11 68 40 39 44 40 58 Hvn't hrd enough 23 19 25 23 22 24 21 33 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 - 2 1 2 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable 38% 38% 40% 42% 42% 34% 50% 35% Unfavorable 43 38 38 35 38 42 27 42 Hvn't hrd enough 17 24 21 23 20 23 22 22 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 35% 34% 28% 30% 36% 41% 25% 36% 35% Unfavorable 46 39 39 44 46 40 40 39 44 Hvn't hrd enough 18 26 32 25 17 18 34 25 19 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 2
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 50% 7% 92% 40% 44% 55% 44% 90% Disapprove 47 91 6 53 53 42 53 6 DK/NA 4 2 2 7 3 4 3 3 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Approve 43% 45% 38% 40% 39% 48% 28% 46% Disapprove 55 51 59 56 58 48 68 50 DK/NA 2 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 47% 51% 57% 53% 48% 44% 60% 50% 47% Disapprove 50 45 39 43 50 54 37 47 49 DK/NA 3 4 4 4 2 2 3 3 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 22 Sep 26 Aug 23 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 2012 Approve 50 50 49 48 Disapprove 47 47 48 48 DK/NA 4 3 2 3
10. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More 41% 52% 40% 35% 42% 41% 41% 44% Less 12 8 9 18 11 13 13 6 About the same 46 38 51 46 46 46 46 50 DK/NA 1 1 - - 1 - 1 - WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No More 39% 42% 42% 43% 43% 39% 47% 40% Less 12 13 13 13 11 14 14 12 About the same 48 45 44 44 45 47 39 47 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ More 38% 43% 40% 40% 42% 43% 36% 36% 46% Less 13 12 13 10 13 12 9 14 12 About the same 48 45 46 50 45 45 54 50 42 DK/NA 1 - 1 - - - 1 - 1
TREND: Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 22 Sep 26 Aug 23 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 2012 More 41 35 33 32 Less 12 17 22 21 About the same 46 48 44 47 DK/NA 1 1 1 -
11. (If already voted) Did you vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or did you vote at an early voting location?
LIKELY VOTERS.... ALREADY VOTED.... Tot Men Wom Mail/Absentee 75% 69% 79% Early voting loc 25 30 21 DK/NA - 1 -
12. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better 37% 6% 70% 30% 37% 38% 34% 63% Worse 36 68 6 41 38 35 40 5 The same 25 25 23 27 25 25 25 28 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 4 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Better 35% 34% 29% 31% 34% 34% 19% 37% Worse 40 40 44 42 40 40 54 37 The same 24 26 26 26 26 25 27 26 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Better 39% 37% 38% 39% 38% 40% 46% 38% 35% Worse 37 35 32 34 36 39 23 34 40 The same 23 26 28 26 26 21 28 26 23 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 - 1 2 1 1
TREND: Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 22 Aug 01 2012 2012 Better 37 26 Worse 36 39 The same 25 34 DK/NA 1 1
13. Do you think Ohio's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better 46% 30% 65% 42% 50% 43% 44% 62% Worse 22 35 8 26 20 24 24 10 The same 30 33 25 31 29 31 31 26 DK/NA 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Better 49% 41% 39% 46% 50% 39% 32% 47% Worse 21 25 26 22 20 27 33 21 The same 28 33 33 30 30 32 34 30 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Better 52% 43% 39% 46% 51% 52% 42% 45% 48% Worse 20 24 22 22 21 22 23 24 21 The same 26 32 37 31 27 26 34 29 29 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 1 - 1 1 2
TREND: Do you think Ohio's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 22 Aug 01 2012 2012 Better 46 33 Worse 22 26 The same 30 40 DK/NA 1 1
14. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 60% 26% 94% 55% 58% 63% 56% 93% No 37 71 5 42 39 35 41 6 DK/NA 3 3 1 3 3 2 3 - WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Yes 59% 54% 50% 54% 54% 57% 40% 60% No 38 43 47 43 42 40 57 37 DK/NA 3 3 4 3 4 2 3 3 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes 62% 59% 66% 61% 59% 61% 76% 63% 55% No 35 38 31 36 38 39 23 35 41 DK/NA 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 3 4
TREND: Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 22 Sep 26 Aug 23 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 2012 Yes 60 59 59 55 No 37 38 39 43 DK/NA 3 3 3 2
15. Would you say that Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 45% 88% 11% 46% 51% 39% 50% 10% No 50 9 86 47 44 56 45 86 DK/NA 5 3 3 7 5 5 5 4 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Yes 55% 47% 55% 52% 54% 45% 63% 48% No 41 48 40 43 40 50 33 46 DK/NA 5 5 5 5 6 4 4 6 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes 51% 41% 34% 41% 47% 55% 38% 45% 46% No 45 54 62 53 47 42 60 50 48 DK/NA 5 5 3 6 6 4 2 5 6
TREND: Would you say that Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 22 Sep 26 Aug 23 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 2012 Yes 45 38 41 38 No 50 57 53 55 DK/NA 5 5 6 7
16. Would you say that Barack Obama has strong leadership qualities or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 58% 19% 93% 54% 54% 62% 53% 94% No 40 80 6 45 45 37 46 5 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Yes 52% 53% 46% 52% 49% 56% 38% 56% No 47 45 53 47 49 43 61 43 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes 57% 59% 63% 62% 57% 55% 79% 59% 53% No 42 39 35 37 43 45 20 41 46 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 - - 1 - 2
17. Would you say that Mitt Romney has strong leadership qualities or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 64% 94% 36% 67% 69% 59% 69% 31% No 32 4 59 26 26 36 27 62 DK/NA 5 2 5 7 5 5 4 7 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Yes 75% 65% 70% 72% 73% 64% 75% 67% No 21 31 26 25 23 31 22 27 DK/NA 4 4 4 4 4 5 2 5 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes 71% 59% 48% 62% 70% 78% 58% 65% 64% No 25 36 45 33 27 20 37 30 31 DK/NA 4 5 7 5 3 2 4 5 5
18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 48% 5% 89% 40% 42% 54% 42% 89% Romney 48 94 7 53 55 41 53 9 DK/NA 4 1 4 7 3 5 5 2 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Obama 39% 44% 38% 37% 37% 47% 28% 43% Romney 57 51 58 59 60 47 70 50 DK/NA 3 5 4 4 4 6 2 6 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 44% 51% 59% 52% 45% 41% 60% 49% 45% Romney 53 45 35 45 51 56 37 47 50 DK/NA 4 5 5 3 4 3 4 4 5
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 22 Sep 26 Aug 23 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 2012 Obama 48 51 47 46 Romney 48 45 47 45 DK/NA 4 3 6 8
19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - foreign policy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 50% 10% 90% 42% 46% 54% 45% 89% Romney 43 87 6 48 49 38 48 7 DK/NA 7 3 5 10 5 8 6 4 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Obama 44% 46% 40% 40% 42% 48% 30% 47% Romney 50 47 53 55 53 44 65 47 DK/NA 6 7 6 5 4 8 5 6 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 48% 51% 58% 53% 48% 45% 63% 48% 48% Romney 46 42 34 41 46 48 30 44 46 DK/NA 6 7 8 6 5 6 7 7 6
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on foreign policy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 22 Sep 26 Aug 23 2012 2012 2012 Obama 50 54 50 Romney 43 41 40 DK/NA 7 6 10
20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - taxes, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 51% 9% 90% 44% 46% 55% 45% 89% Romney 43 88 5 47 50 38 48 7 DK/NA 6 4 5 8 4 8 6 4 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Obama 43% 47% 41% 42% 42% 49% 32% 47% Romney 51 47 52 54 54 43 62 46 DK/NA 5 6 7 4 4 8 5 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 47% 53% 60% 53% 50% 44% 66% 52% 47% Romney 47 41 33 41 45 52 31 43 46 DK/NA 6 6 7 7 5 4 3 5 7
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on taxes, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 22 Sep 26 Aug 23 2012 2012 2012 Obama 51 53 51 Romney 43 43 41 DK/NA 6 4 8
21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the budget deficit, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 43% 4% 83% 33% 36% 49% 37% 85% Romney 51 95 11 59 59 44 58 9 DK/NA 6 1 6 9 5 7 6 5 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Obama 33% 39% 33% 31% 31% 42% 26% 37% Romney 62 55 61 65 65 51 70 57 DK/NA 5 6 6 4 4 7 5 6 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 37% 46% 53% 45% 42% 32% 47% 44% 41% Romney 57 48 39 48 55 63 50 50 53 DK/NA 6 6 8 6 3 5 3 6 6
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the budget deficit, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 22 Sep 26 Aug 23 2012 2012 2012 Obama 43 45 40 Romney 51 49 50 DK/NA 6 6 9
22. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - helping the middle class, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 54% 10% 94% 49% 49% 59% 49% 92% Romney 41 86 4 44 47 36 47 5 DK/NA 4 4 2 7 4 5 4 3 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Obama 46% 51% 44% 44% 44% 53% 36% 50% Romney 51 44 52 51 52 42 61 46 DK/NA 4 5 4 5 4 5 3 4 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 50% 57% 65% 57% 51% 49% 68% 54% 51% Romney 46 38 31 38 47 46 30 41 45 DK/NA 4 5 4 5 2 5 2 5 5
23. Which candidate do you think did the best job, or won, the second presidential debate Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 48% 11% 81% 43% 46% 49% 43% 82% Romney 27 57 4 29 31 25 31 2 TIE(VOL) 12 19 4 13 13 10 13 3 DIDN'T WATCH(VOL) 11 11 9 11 8 13 11 12 DK/NA 3 2 2 4 1 4 3 1 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Obama 42% 43% 38% 38% 42% 44% 29% 45% Romney 31 32 34 33 34 29 41 29 TIE(VOL) 15 11 14 15 14 11 16 11 DIDN'T WATCH(VOL) 10 11 11 10 8 12 10 11 DK/NA 3 3 3 3 1 4 3 3 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 46% 49% 51% 50% 48% 47% 58% 50% 44% Romney 28 27 24 25 28 29 24 26 29 TIE(VOL) 13 10 9 11 11 15 3 9 15 DIDN'T WATCH(VOL) 10 11 13 11 10 6 15 12 9 DK/NA 3 2 2 3 2 2 - 3 3
24. Did you watch or listen to the second presidential debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 84% 85% 84% 85% 87% 82% 85% 81% No 15 14 15 15 13 18 15 18 DK/NA - - - - - - - 1 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Yes 86% 84% 85% 86% 88% 82% 85% 85% No 14 16 15 14 12 17 14 15 DK/NA - - - - - - - - COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes 87% 83% 80% 82% 86% 92% 81% 83% 86% No 13 17 19 18 14 8 19 17 14 DK/NA - - 1 1 - - - 1 -
25. Did the second presidential debate make you more likely to vote for Barack Obama, more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, or did it have no effect on your vote choice?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 19% 2% 36% 14% 15% 22% 15% 41% Romney 14 28 2 14 14 13 15 3 No effect 63 66 58 65 67 59 65 49 LESS LIKELY/ NEITHER(VOL) - - - 1 1 - 1 - ALREADY VOTED(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - DK/NA 4 3 3 5 3 5 3 6 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Obama 13% 16% 13% 14% 11% 18% 15% 13% Romney 15 15 17 19 15 15 20 15 No effect 68 63 65 63 69 61 60 67 LESS LIKELY/ NEITHER(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 ALREADY VOTED(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 3 4 4 3 2 4 3 4 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 15% 21% 28% 17% 16% 13% 27% 16% 18% Romney 14 13 13 14 12 14 8 11 16 No effect 67 61 52 64 67 71 59 67 61 LESS LIKELY/ NEITHER(VOL) - 1 1 1 - - 2 - - ALREADY VOTED(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - - 1 1 DK/NA 3 4 5 3 3 2 4 5 3
26. Do you plan on watching or listening to the third presidential debate on Monday, October 22nd, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 85% 88% 83% 86% 86% 84% 85% 84% No 11 10 11 11 11 12 11 10 DK/NA 4 2 6 3 3 5 3 6 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Yes 83% 87% 85% 87% 86% 85% 88% 84% No 14 10 11 10 11 12 11 12 DK/NA 3 3 4 3 3 4 1 4 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes 83% 86% 85% 81% 85% 88% 89% 84% 84% No 13 10 9 16 11 9 8 13 11 DK/NA 3 4 6 3 3 3 3 3 4
27. Who do you think will win the third presidential debate, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 40% 7% 73% 32% 36% 43% 35% 75% Romney 31 65 4 33 35 28 34 6 TIE (VOL) 3 4 1 4 4 3 3 1 DK/NA 26 25 21 32 26 27 27 17 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Obama 30% 38% 31% 33% 32% 37% 24% 37% Romney 35 34 37 40 38 32 47 32 TIE (VOL) 5 3 4 5 4 3 3 5 DK/NA 30 26 29 23 26 28 26 26 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 34% 43% 48% 44% 37% 33% 54% 38% 37% Romney 32 30 25 30 35 33 28 32 31 TIE (VOL) 5 2 2 3 3 6 1 4 3 DK/NA 30 24 26 23 26 28 17 26 29
Demographic Summary

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