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Government and Politics

Obama leaps 10 points over Romney in Ohio poll
Obama widens his lead in Ohio by four percentage points since August's Quinnipiac poll.
This story is part of a special series.

Karen Kasler

A new poll shows President Barack Obama opening a double-digit lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in two of three key swing states. Statehouse correspondent Karen Kasler looks into Ohio’s most recent poll numbers.

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President Obama’s lead in Ohio over Mitt Romney has grown to 10 points in the latest Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times swing state poll. President Obama leads Romney 53 percent to 43 percent, and that’s a four point gain for the president since the last poll in August.

Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown says the poll was taken last week, as the tape of Romney’s comments about 47% of non-income taxpaying Americans came out. Obama has a 25-point lead among women who are likely to vote, with Romney holding an eight-point lead with men. Independents are almost dead even – 47 percent for Romney and 46 percent for Obama. And this is a state that went solidly red in 2010. But Brown says voters who turn out in presidential election tend to be younger, more racially diverse and less conservative than in off-year elections. 

“Off year elections like 2010 tend to have a smaller turnout, but the group that turns out is whiter, older and a little bit more conservative than normally turns out in a presidential election year.”

Political scientist David Cohen is at the Bliss Institute for Applied Politics at the University of Akron. He says the results of 2010 came from an energized Republican base coupled with unenthusiastic Democrats. And he notes that there are two stats buried in this poll that are tough for Romney. 
“One of the challenges that Romney has is the fact that there are so few undecided voters.  Only seven percent are undecided, and the ones that have decided to go for Romney or Obama – at a 92% clip, they said they have made up their mind and they’re not going to change it.” 

Brown notes that there is more than a month left in this campaign, and there are three high profile presidential debates ahead. And Cohen says Ohioans shouldn’t expect that either candidate has concluded that the state is no longer up for grabs, so there should be no let-up in ads and campaign visits.

Listener Comments:

"Obama leaps 10 points over Romney in Ohio poll" yea, and the turmoil in the Middle East is due to a cheap video.
The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times swing state poll details, such as how the poll was taken, and the questions that were asked may have some merit - Quinnipac is not know for accuracy in the past - Rasmussen, that is fairly accurate, has Obama and Romney tied, and with God's grace Obama will loose.

Posted by: Crony Capitalism Stinks on October 2, 2012 5:10AM
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